The material presented
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level.
I noticed that Toby Rice Drews, author of the "Getting Them Sober" books, recently published the following summary of "sobriety statistics". I'm confident that Toby would have no issue with me re-posting this here, and also would agree that statistics such as these are tough to fully validate, but this has some credibility, coming from an expert within the field....
Here is what she said:
"These stats are about U.S. recovery.....
a. of alcoholics who 'are dry'......i.e., just stop drinking and do not go to A.A.......2% of them stay sober over the long haul, without A.A.
b. there are around 4+ million alcoholics sober in A.A. in the U.S. That number keeps growing
c. Once a person has reached the rooms of A.A., then he/she has a 75% chance of getting and staying sober.
here is the breakdown of that 75%------- 50% stay sober from day one another 25% have relapses, but if they keep coming back to A.A. despite the relapses, they finally get and stay sober
A.A. SPOILS THEIR DRINKING."
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"He is either gonna drink, or he won't.... what are YOU gonna do?"
"What you think of me is none of my business"
"If you knew the answer to what you are worrying about, would it REALLY change anything?"
8. Professionals have conducted surveys among veterans, patients, and selected groups of AAs. The accuracy is not the subject of my knowledge. But the facts about present-day A.A. are these in their studies: (a) A definite 75% fail to maintain sobriety. (b) Probably no more than one to five percent maintain permanent sobriety. (c) As often as not, those who aligned with AA have a lower success rate than those who got sober without AA. (d) To date there has been no adequate survey of success or failure among those AAs who like the pioneers were born again Christians, reliant upon the Creator for help, and joined together in some Christian church or Bible fellowship, or prayer group.
Doorknobs aren't working if you know what i mean.
The great debate is not if the recovery rate has dwindled but rather...Why?
I personally know 2 people who have quit with AA and not gone back to drinking for over 10 years. I know many many who have never quit too. Hard to say really. I think it's about the individual not about any specific program.
Lies, damn lies, and STATISTICS! (also the title of a well known book for undergraduate study).
That, from my days as a dis-illusioned statistician. The least favourite of my subjects. One can do a lot with numbers, and it all depends on the audience it is meant for and the results you want to portray.
However, synical as I may have sounded just then, there might be some positivity in statistics?
Hm, and the debate goes on........
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"The highest form of wisdom is kindness." The Talmund
All I know is that AA has worked for my AH, one day at a time, for 2 1/2 years....
Regardless, this program is about the ability to live happy, joyous and free whether the alcoholic is still drinking or not....
And I love that Benjamin Disraeli quote. You really can make the same set of stats support whichever position you want to take, so have at it. I am going to stay focused on what works for me and AA/Al-Anon work for me.
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Do not be anxious about tomorrow; tomorrow will look after itself. The Bible, from Courage to Change, p.138
If you care to discuss I will give you the three main streams of argument as to why the numbers are so low. No doubt though they have lowered. This is from personal discussions at the area and general conference levels of service and a popular author.
In no particular order:
AA had two major factions in its beginning. A midwestern (Ohio) band of Bible thumpers and an East Coast (New York) liberal Any God including a doorknob bunch. Many of the oldtimers in the Midwest blame the drop in the loss of Christian roots. The global expansion and rapid pace could not have happened without the East Coast ideas though in my opinion. Now you have a high percentage of recoveries or a very broad spread of recoveries with a lower success rate.
Another group say we're just not strict enough in general. That more people need to be dragged by the ears through the steps like soldiers or something hollered and swore at. If we forced em to do what we say they would get sober. We got some cult like groups that take your money and manage it for you and manage your every move. The groups don't last but the idea seems to live forever.
Another group thinks their are too many that are forced into recovery and that recovery is for those that want it instead of those that need it. This huge percentage of AA attendees come from the influx of DUI court cases, interventions by wives and employers and rehabs/clinics have flooded the rooms with people that don't really want or are ready to get sober. This huge influx of people that may not even be alcoholic yet are what dilutes the numbers. supporters of this argument (one of my favorites too) would stick By CG's original recovery numbers if we they were allowed to subtract those forced into recovery.
There's three major theories but none of them deny the numbers are down. Even AA quit publishing numbers in 2004 just for disraelis reason. They needed to show some numbers that reported something positive. What they did was eliminate all those with less than a year in the survey. Did you know the average length of sobriety in AA is now 8 years? Real flip from 4 % Marvelous use of statistics.
I would say an honest number is 98% of those that work a fourth and fifth step stay sober. I've met three. 2 said they weren't entirely honest and the third said it just didn't work for him. Rehab fourth steps usually are redone.
you know, I am a relative newbie to all this but I was talking about this with some other al-anoners and one (an old timer) said she thought that the double winners come into al-anon to get deeper into the spiritual aspect of recovery and that AA is too much angled at just quitting drinking as opposed to really working a complete recovery program including the spiritual inquiry piece which we do pretty intensely in al-anon.
I have talked with some double winners who say al-anon is much more spiritually oriented and driven than AA and that this spiritual aspect is what has kept them sober longer- al-anon is a more thorough recovery program because of a stronger spiritual component?
Just my two cents. Thanks for the interesting topic. J.
I think it's helpful to know what we're up against. I also think statistics can be skewed anyway you want to read them, though - especially when we're talking about a disease that has shame as one of its components (unfortunately), but because of this may lead some to not seek help through AA.
Jean, I really like what you said about the spiritual component of Al-Anon. That part has been SO vital for me. I've spent a fair number of hours in AA meetings, and I agree that their focus really does seem to be on staying sober. AA is not my program, though, so I can't really speak to it - all I know is it does work for MANY - if they work it.
Interesting topic - for those of us who are just "fact hounds".
I think its an interesting topic for an Al-anon board because the dangerous sales tactics displayed by interventionists. They feed off the guilt and our need to "DO SOMETHING." Deceit toward people as desperate as ourselves is just not right. Intervening is something we (I?) try real hard to quit doing.
We (I?) have a solution that doesn't cost more than a dollar a meeting. Interventionist try to negate the three C's. By the time they are done with us in our desperation, they convince many they can control it, they can cure it and if they don't do everything they can, like buying their service we are partially the cause. Its almost criminal when you know that the truth is otherwise.
Reputable therapists will admit that intervention is only for the desperate spouse or family member. They rarely work for the alcoholic. Their real power lies in making such an uncomfortable situation for the alcoholic that he sees running to rehab as a way to squirm out of the tremendous pain being inflicted on him or her. All they have to do is agree to go to rehab and the team badgering stops. Few get sober unless they come in of their own free will. Outside duress is more toxic than helpful. I have run into one pocket of intervened alcoholics that appreciated the effort. That pocket was about 3 or four in a major metropolitan area. That area had many high bottoms because of rigid laws. They also had success with acupuncture and hypnosis in that area. In many cases it was not alcoholism but social stigmatism that was being treated.
The interventionist is using the old numbers and false hope, to sell a book and a service. Step one has went nowhere. People are still powerless over alcoholism.
Well, now we've switched from the effectiveness of AA to the effectiveness of an intervention.
In my AH's case, intervention was successful in getting him into detox and into an inpatient treatment program. After that, it was all about my AH and how much he wanted to stay sober.
As David said, it works if you work it.
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Do not be anxious about tomorrow; tomorrow will look after itself. The Bible, from Courage to Change, p.138
